this post is about measuring ignorance. yes, that sounds weird, but in systems engineering it’s a very big deal now. as our complex engineered systems progress in their reliability, we are trying as hard as possible to make sure that we can anticipate all the ways they can possibly fail. essentially, we are everyday trying…
Category: risk management
Irene shows that when insight succeeds, irritability may set in
I find the discussion and pictures associated with Hurricane Irene amusing for a combination of forecast accuracy, administrative and management response, and the resulting affect among the general public. First, we see that the forecasts were accurate in terms of the magnitude and direction of the storm. I have been astonished how accurate weather forecasts…
optimism vs. ‘predictive precautionary pessimism’
I’ve been excited and nervous about the debate on nuclear power safety both at the same time. It’s made me think about the nature of infrastructure failures. In short, our lifeline systems are becoming so safe that all failures will be catastrophic. Today on one of the morning radio shows I listen to, an interviewee…
thoughts of earthquake inspiration and intercession
i’m not sure what to call this one, because the earthquake near sendai, japan, has been so shocking. i think the main reason this quake hasn’t occupied my every waking moment like the haitian earthquake did is because i am married to a haitian woman, while i do not know many japanese or anyone visiting…
#18
This is what I was talking about in one of my previous posts. An expert engineering panel with the American Society of Civil Engineers has released a report “detailing several recommendations for overcoming the deficiencies in the city’s hurricane protection system and instituting real change in its governance, management and engineering.” Their conclusions are apparently…
bungling boondoggling bumbling bureaucrats! (wait… i want to be one one day, right?)
On this anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, I’d like to join Grist magazine and others in pointing out one of the true criminals in this whole deal who have been spared their reasonable share of the blame in this catastrophe: The Army Corps of Engineers. Let’s begin with a short excerpt from the Grist headline article:…